The really surprising thing is that it isn’t higher.
People are finally losing faith in the European Union’s ability to deliver on its promise. That is one of the main findings of a survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations, which is based on almost 6,000 interviews with respondents in Germany, France, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, which obviously is not in the EU.
“For many of the people we spoke to, the problem is not that they have stopped wanting a stronger Europe, but that they no longer believe that it is achievable,” says Pawel Zerka, author of the study. “There is a gap in ideas.” And a chasm in leadership (more on that later).
Scepticism is particularly high in France, Germany and Italy. Only twelve percent of those surveyed see signs of a “European renewal” or “awakening”. According to the survey, war and security are the biggest concern — not much of a surprise given the amount of fearmongering around the Russian threat.
The economic cost of war in Europe also continues to grow, including as a result of the loss of cheap Russian energy and increased public spending on defence squeezing out spending on more socially beneficial items, such as health, education and infrastructure.
European governments’ newfound enthusiasm for military conscription, for a war against Russia they have no chance of winning, may also be concentrating minds. Of one thing EU citizens can rest assured: it won’t be the children of Europe’s political class going to the front.
Across the countries covered by the interviews, many conversations followed a similar pattern, notes the report:
Each interview begins with an icebreaker question: “Let’s imagine you have a friend who fell asleep five years ago and has just woken up. This friend asks you: ‘How is Europe doing at the moment?’ How would you describe Europe today—what would you tell them?”
In their answers, by far the largest group of respondents (on average 68% across the six countries studied) talks about a general deterioration or loss of normality. Only 12% see opportunity in the crises confronting the continent and frame their responses in terms of Europe’s awakening or renewal…
People appreciate Europe, but they recognise the challenges it faces and express little faith in its collective capacity to deal with them. Even when respondents have big ambitions for Europe, they often talk about them as mere aspirations that are unlikely to become reality.
So, it may no longer be enough to distinguish only between pro-European and Eurosceptic voters. Another important divide is whether people believe European leaders (EU and national alike) can turn their hopes into reality.
The second biggest concern relates to the economic reality. In Italy, for instance, more than 40% of citizens fear the loss of prosperity. While the report barely touches upon what may actually be driving this trend, the Spanish economist Eduardo Garzon has produced an interesting Twitter thread on the role played by European governments’ ever more aggressive dismantling of the welfare state in the rise of the far-right across Europe.
While the main focus of the thread is the UK government’s gutting of the NHS, its lessons are extrapolable to many other European countries where similar austerity regimes have gutted welfare spending. As the thread is in Spanish, I have provided an English translation of the key points:
The far-right has been growing throughout Europe for years. A thousand explanations are given: immigration, social media, globalization… I’m sure they all hold some kernel of truth. But there is one factor that studies are beginning to document and about which much less is said: the dismantling of the welfare state.
A map showing the % vote share of far-right parties, from May 2025:
A study published in 2024 analyses the case of the United Kingdom and tries to establish a causal relationship between cuts in the public health system and the rise in votes for the far right. The results are revealing.
The NHS (UK National Health Service) is the largest publicly funded universal health service in the world. It serves more than 63 million people. It spends 11% of GDP. It is supported across the political spectrum. It is even a source of national pride.
Or at least it was…
Nick Corbishley 