As unintended consequences go, this could be a big one.
Demand for cash around the world is at a 20-year low, according to De La Rue, the company that prints Britain’s banknotes. But fear of war with Russia as well as other unintended consequences of driving cash out of the economy is prompting some of Europe’s most cashless economies to rapidly reverse course.
A few days ago, The Daily Telegraph published an article warning that “Going Cashless Risks Playing Straight into Putin’s Hands.” As its title suggests, the article’s premise is that the West’s accelerating shift from physical money to digital transactions “may be leaving nations exposed to Russian cyber-attacks”:
Swedish families have this week received an ominous yellow leaflet. The cover shows an illustration of a female soldier with an assault rifle. In big black letters it says: “If crisis or war comes”.
The leaflet contains information on everything from how to deal with anxiety, how to staunch a bleeding wound and what to do if an air raid alarm sounds.
It also urges inhabitants to keep enough cash on hand for a week of essentials “preferably in different denominations” and to “use cash occasionally”.
The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, which is behind the brochure, says it will increase citizens’ “emergency preparedness”. Norway, Finland and Denmark have published similar guidance in recent months.
It is a significant shift for a group of countries that were on the cusp of going totally cashless.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought the threat of cyber attacks, sabotage and outright war closer to home in the Nordics. Payments networks could be a potential target.
Stash Cash in Case of a “Crisis or War”
Back in 2018, the then-deputy governor of Sweden’s central bank, Cecilia Skingsley, predicted that Sweden would probably be fully cashless by 2025. We are now less than a month from the start of that year yet rather than pulling the plug on cash, Sweden’s central bank is instead warning about the unintended consequences of driving cash out of the economy.
Those unintended consequences include exposing the country’s payments system to heightened risk of cyber-attacks and cyber fraud. In response, the Riksbank is advising Swedish citizens to have at home at least 2,000 krona ($181) in cash in case of a “crisis or war”. In its 2024 payments report, the central bank also warned of “serious fraud problems that could undermine trust in the payment system.”
Sweden’s near-total abandonment of cash has unleashed a digital crime wave, prompting calls from the central bank to strengthen cash’s role in the economy. After playing more than a bit-part role in the wholesale removal of cash from Sweden’s economy, the Riksbank is now trying to reverse some of the damage it has caused. It is even considering bolstering legislation to force shops that sell government-deemed “essential” goods to accept cash.
The findings of the report may offer a cautionary tale at a time when the dominant narrative around cash — as espoused by senior bankers, central bankers, big tech and fintech executives, politicians and economists, and of course, their ever-faithful servants in the media — is that its demise is all but inevitable, even in countries where cash is still King (Germany, Spain, Austria, Mexico, Thailand, Japan…).
Sweden’s more or less equally cashless Nordic neighbours, Norway and Finland, are in a similar bind. Finland’s economy was until recently forecast to become totally cashless by 2029, but its central bank and government are also having second thoughts, particularly after the government’s decision to join NATO last year, placing it squarely on the front line of NATO’s war with Russia. A couple of weeks ago, Finland hosted its first ever NATO exercises.
In 2022, the Bank of Finland recommended that the use of cash payments be guaranteed by law and urged citizens to have at least three days worth of cash on hand in case of emergency. It’s not only the central bank that appears to be re-evaluating its approach toward cash: so, too, is the general public, with 95% of citizens considering it crucial for cash to continue serving as a valid payment method alongside digital alternatives, according to a 2023 survey by IRO Research for Nosto ATMs.
The war in Ukraine and Finland’s recent membership of NATO appear to have played a role in this shift. According to the survey, the conflict in Ukraine and concerns about supply security have affected the attitude of nearly one-third (28%) of Finns towards cash.
In Norway, where just 3% of in-store purchases involve cash, the government has gone even further by introducing legislation to protect citizens’ rights to use cash. In April, a press release from the Ministry of Justice and Public Security highlighted the importance of cash as an “always on” payment option, ensuring Norway’s economy will not be rendered completely inaccessible in the event of “prolonged power outages, system failure or digital attacks against payment systems and banks”.
Fomenting Fears of Russian Cyber Attacks
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Daily Telegraph article focuses almost exclusively on the Nordic economies’ vulnerability to a Russian cyber-attack, which is only one of the potential threats their payments systems face. The others include power failures and IT outages, neither of which get a mention in the article — perhaps because their inclusion would indicate that the fragility of cashless systems is a broad systemic issue that extends far beyond the risks of a Russian cyber-attack.
The Telegraph, like most Anglo-American media, has been fomenting public fears about the risk of a Russian cyber-attack since the very first day of Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine. In the third month of the war (April 2022), cybersecurity authorities from the “Five Eye” nations (US, UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand) released a joint statement warning that more malicious cyber activity is on the way.
The statement was, above all, an exercise in projection. Both the US and the UK have significant offensive cyber war capabilities of their own, and the US has shown no qualms about using them. US intelligence agencies, at Obama’s behest, have already drawn up a list of potential overseas targets for cyber-attacks. They presumably include Venezuela’s electricity grid, which, according to the Maduro government, has twice been the target of a US cyber-attack — in 2019 at the height of the attempted Guaidó coup and just a few months ago, in the days following Venezuela’s contested elections.
On both sides of the Ukraine conflict, cyber operations appear to have had a constant but broadly muted impact. Even the Telegraph piece concedes that “Putin’s track record suggests a direct attack is unlikely”. The doomsday predictions of the world’s first ever “cyberwar” have so far not materialised, thankfully. But that hasn’t stopped the constant churn of warnings about Russia’s potential cyber threat. Just last week, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden, whose role includes responsibility for national security, told a Nato meeting that the Kremlin could target British businesses and leave millions without power.
The threat is, of course, real: Russia has both the capability and the motive to launch a barrage of cyber-attacks against Western targets…
Read the full article on Naked Capitalism
Nick Corbishley 