The Noboa government’s labelling of the drug cartels as “terrorist organisations” and “belligerent non-state actors” opens the door even wider to the possibility of US military support.
Ecuador’s new President Daniel Noboa, the 36-year old son of the country’s richest businessman, has been in office for just under two months and he has already declared war on the country’s criminal gangs. On Monday (Jan 8), he announced a state of emergency following riots in six prisons in which prison guards were taken hostage and the leaders of two of Ecuador’s largest drug cartels managed to escape. The next day (Jan 9), armed men stormed the TC television channel in Guayaquil and took staff hostage during a live broadcast.
Alina Manrique Cedeño, a journalist for the television channel, explained to the media that the gang members that took over the channel were very young and were taking orders over their cell phones. In her opinion, the gang wanted to send the public a message of terror during prime time on Ecuador’s most watched channel. On the same day, armed groups also entered universities and other public institutions amid widespread looting in Quito.
In response, Noboa declared an “internal armed conflict” against the country’s criminal gangs, labelling more than 20 of them as “terrorist organisations” and “belligerent non-state actors (Coincidentally, is what Republican lawmakers in the US have been calling for Mexican drug cartels to be labelled terrorist organisations in order to green light armed US intervention in Mexico).
Noboa ordered the deployment of the country’s armed forces onto the streets of Ecuador’s cities to assist the Police in combating the drug cartels and restore law and order in the crime-ravaged country. The order will initially be in force for 8 days, though that is likely to be extended.
If this story sounds familiar, it’s because we have seen the same script, with minor alterations, play out before, most recently in Mexico. In early 2007, Mexico’s then-President Felipe Calderon, also in his first months in office, declared total war on the drug cartels. Like Noboa, he had neither the resources, expertise or manpower to take on such a task. As in Ecuador today, Mexico’s armed forces, like the police, were drastically under-resourced and had already been compromised by the cartels. Here’s what happened next, as the war unleashed an unending cycle of chaos, violence and death:
As the violence in Ecuador escalates, the government of neighbouring Peru has declared a state of emergency on its northern border with Ecuador, and is even considering closing the border and sending troop reinforcements there. Mexico’s government has warned its citizens in Ecuador not to go out unless strictly necessary, and both the US and Chinese embassies in the country have cancelled appointments for consular matters at their headquarters in Guayaquil, the coastal city from where most of the drugs are shipped abroad and much of the gang violence is concentrated.
The Broader Picture
Noboa’s labelling of the drug cartels as “terrorist organisations” and “belligerent non-state actors” opens the door even wider to the prospect of military support and even direct intervention from the US armed forces, which has been on the cards for quite some time, as we first reported in June 2022. The Biden Administration is now offering to bolster its “cooperation” with Quito.
“We are willing to take concrete measures to improve our cooperation with the Government of Ecuador in its fight against violence,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said during the daily White House press conference on Wednesday. Kirby added that so far the Biden Administration has not held specific conversations with Noboa or his government, but is willing to discuss what Ecuador may need to address its crisis.
Crucially, these words of support come just four months after Washington signed a hush-hush agreement with Ecuador’s outgoing President Guillermo Lasso to allow the entry of US troops onto Ecuadorian soil.
The US isn’t the only government talking about offering direct military support to Ecuador…
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Nick Corbishley 